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Local equities continue firm trade in morning deals
Jun-24-2025

Indian equity benchmarks continued firm trade in the morning session mirroring a rally in global peers and drop in Brent crude oil prices amid hopes of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. Sentiments remained up-beat as S&P Global Ratings raised India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast for current fiscal to 6.5 per cent assuming a normal monsoon, lower crude oil prices, income-tax concessions and monetary easing. Traders took a note of Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal’s statement that the government holds extensive stakeholder consultations on the free trade agreements (FTAs) and is pursuing these pacts while keeping in mind the interests of the domestic industry. He said that India is keeping in mind both the offensive and defensive interests of industry while negotiating these agreements. On the global front, Asian markets are trading higher as traders react positively to reports that Israel and Iran have agreed to a complete and total ceasefire to be phased in over 24 hours.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 82768.74, up by 871.95 points or 1.06% after trading in a range of 82360.04 and 82835.39. There were 28 stocks advancing against 2 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index rose 0.73%, while Small cap index was up by 0.81%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Auto up by 1.56%, Realty up by 1.27%, Consumer Disc up by 1.11%, Telecom up by 1.10% and Bankex up by 1.03%, while Capital Goods down by 0.03% was the lone losing index on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Adani Ports & SEZ up by 3.66%, Larsen & Toubro up by 2.59%, Mahindra & Mahindra up by 2.52%, Ultratech Cement up by 2.45% and Tata Motors up by 1.63%. On the flip side, NTPC down by 3.15% and Bharat Electronics down by 1.05% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, ICRA in its recent report has said that if the heightened tension in the West Asia pushes average crude prices by $10 per barrel, it will typically push up India's net oil imports by nearly $13-14 billion during the year, enlarging the India's current account deficit (CAD) by 0.3 per cent of GDP. It stated ‘If the average crude oil price rises to $80-90/bbl in FY26, then the CAD is likely to widen to 1.5-1.6% of GDP from our current estimate of 1.2-1.3% of GDP. This would also exert pressure on the USD/INR pair during the fiscal.’

The report said the conflict between Iran and Israel, which began on June 13, 2025, pushed crude prices from $64-65/bbl to $74-75/bbl. Now, after the US strike on Iran's nuclear sites, Iran has announced that it will close the Strait of Hormuz, which can disrupt the global crude supply. It mentioned ‘Iran straddles the (Strait of Hormuz), which remains one of the key energy choke points, through which almost 20 per cent of global liquids and liquified natural gas (LNG) is traded.’

Moreover, it expects change in crude oil prices is likely to translate faster into the WPI than the CPI amid different weightage mix in both these indices; for every 10 per cent increase in crude oil prices, the WPI inflation will rise by 80-100 bps, compared to 20-30 bps in CPI inflation, provided the transmission into RSPs of petrol and diesel takes place. India imports crude from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE, which is routed through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), and it accounts for approx. 45-50 per cent of the total crude oil imports to India.

Additionally, it stated that any sustained disruption in supplies from Iran, and/or spread of the conflict to other large producers in this area and/or any disturbance in the trade route through SoH could drive energy prices higher. On the natural gas side, nearly 54 per cent of natural gas imports for India pass through SoH, and a major share of the term LNG originates from Qatar and the UAE. And any disruption in the SoH may result in supply uncertainties from Qatar and the UAE, which may result in higher dependence on the spot LNG market.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 25224.60, up by 252.70 points or 1.01% after trading in a range of 25118.50 and 25257.95. There were 45 stocks advancing against 5 stocks declining on the index.

The top gainers on Nifty were Adani Ports & SEZ up by 3.74%, JIO Financial Services up by 2.69%, Larsen & Toubro up by 2.65%, Ultratech Cement up by 2.38% and Shriram Finance up by 2.34%. On the flip side, NTPC down by 2.63%, ONGC down by 1.90%, Bharat Electronics down by 1.24%, Indusind Bank down by 0.68% and Tata Consumer Product down by 0.23% were the top losers.

All Asian markets are trading higher; Nikkei 225 surged 442.13 points or 1.15% to 38,796.22, Taiwan Weighted added 430 points or 1.98% to 22,162.02, Hang Seng advanced 461.42 points or 1.91% to 24,150.55, KOSPI increased 81.44 points or 2.7% to 3,095.91, Straits Times rose 19 points or 0.49% to 3,898.26, Jakarta Composite gained 82.47 points or 1.22% to 6,869.61 and Shanghai Composite strengthened 33.87 points or 0.99% to 3,415.45. 
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